PredictIt and Victoria University use the results from the market for statistical analysis, market theory, and trader psychology, and as supporting data for research papers and analyses. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" 4: Investment Interest Rate/Time Value of Money. PredictItPredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. More than 19 million shares were traded on the House speaker question leading up to McCarthy’s ultimate ascension this. Even if the CFTC follows through on its initial decision to shut the site down, it’s hard not to feel that PredictIt has, in some more. They’re called betting exchanges. Users can purchase shares of an outcome, like buying "Yes" or "No" shares of whether or not the Farm Bill will pass by June 30. Get the full predictit. 15. 5M shares traded. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar. Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. Embed Package Health Score Badge. predict(data=np. PREDICT meaning: 1. PredictIt, several of its traders and academic users, and technology provider Aristotle International have filed a lawsuit seeking to block the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic keywords, search rankings, authority, and much more. International filed a lawsuit on Friday, Sept. This article is for subscribers only. 141,467. Produced by ElevenLabs and NOA, News Over Audio, using AI narration. Data. Miller prefers using data from the PredictIt exchange because it provides data on all Electoral College markets and limits each bet to $850. Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome. What that meant, essentially, is the CFTC allowed. 4. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. 5. NEW. org. A twitter rando with little identifying information is taking credit (edit: account just went private after complaining of harassment from Predictit users so tweet is unlinkable now, was@tnim__), claiming he lobbied for it as an act of revenge for Predictit banning him years ago. 7-66. PredictIt Market Probabilities. Here is a look at the odds to win US President in 2024. 11 for Democrats to win, . 24% BNBJust like exchanges, prediction markets trade assets–except it’s not stocks or crypto being traded, but outcomes. The Biggest Horse Race, IV Trump Indicted EditionPredictIt takes a certain percentage of any gains when contracts are sold or settled & takes a percentage of money withdrawn from the site & that is their source of revenues. txt. But PredictIt now faces closure after falling foul of regulators, Sam Sachdeva reports. ”PredictItOn average Trump gets ~5. The top traffic source to marginalrevolution. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Predictit 's alternatives and competitors. Please note election odds are only available in Canada at regulated online sportsbooks. A larger, rival betting site, Kalshi, which takes bets on things like inflation rates and the price of gasoline, now wants to take election bets, too. [3] The company's office is located in Washington, D. Most sports betting sites offer lucrative promos to their customers such as no deposit bonus and so does PredictIt. Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. 99 per share. PredictIt was told to shutter in the U. Candidate. Visualize trends, 3D orbitals, isotopes, and mix compounds. The political betting site PredictIt places his odds of being elected president in 2024, expressed as a share price, at 23 cents, slightly below Trump’s and well below Biden’s, but far above. The CFTC filed a 70-page brief Tuesday arguing against PredictIt's appeal, saying the case is meritless for several reasons. Trump is back on top in PredictIt's Republican nomination. electoral-vote. I saw the post calling for us to fix the market inefficiency on predictit. Business Services · District of Columbia, United States · <25 Employees. More From DraftKings Network. If lots of people want to bet on the Democratic side, then that candidate’s price will go up. Our Data. com (202) 903-4221 The agency said the university had agreed PredictIt would be operated by itself or its professors, but Aristotle Inc. Other Things. In Trump's first year in office, PredictIt's population of traders has grown to 80,000 from 50,000 as the White House deals political junkies a litany of new policy, personnel and, yes, Twitter. The site is now selling shares — taking bets on future political events — for 10. PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. However, it was the only serious site that received a regulatory waiver. 3%: $1,329,129. Free Tools. The Washington Post reported that PredictIt spokesman Will Jennings said the site was accurate 70 to 80 percent of the time, although it was difficult to make a “blanket accuracy assessment, given the variety of markets. There are other sites that operate like PredictIt. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Find Predictit's. PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ” PredictIt, the political. Here is a look at the odds to win US President in 2024. PredictIt also offers political analysis and insights from its experts and community. provider of data processing and verification services. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. PredictIt, a leading political prediction market, is closing its doors on Feb. No. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. These assets trade between 0% and 100%, represented by $0 to $1. PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. In Virginia, it had Youngkin up to 60% when the media was still calling it tossup to tilt D. 8. That’s the draw of a site called PredictIt, where users like Jon Kimball can place live bets on the results of elections. The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have. S. What makes Lemmy one of the best alternatives is its versatility. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. elections, Congress, or Supreme Court, you can find the hottest markets and see how the odds change in real time. New Predictit jobs added daily. Proponents of political betting – including economists like Jason Furman — argue it’s a better gauge of where voters stand than polling and is a hedging tool for. PredictIt says it is not like an online gambling site because it mainly exists to supply its data to universities for academic research, one of the main reasons the U. Directory of sites Login Contact Support. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. Coin Prices. Screenshot via PredictIt. Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election? Find out the latest odds and trends on PredictIt, the stock market for politics. S. com. Consequential issues, […](Disclaimers: I work in the financial industry, though not in a way related to prediction markets. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. Login. Shares of Democratic candidate. Adding some further comments on the performance of prediction markets in the 2020 election here - while the election is still ongoing, I think so far it seems to support the. Pricing. godaddy. And just like in Las Vegas for the NFL Championship, there will be plenty of proposition wagering available. 3. S. PredictIt is a stock market-style prediction platform that allows users to “buy” and “sell” shares in events, with the value of their shares determined by the likelihood of the event occurring. 44-2. PredictIt. PredictIt to Halt Trading in February After Regulator Pulls ‘No-Action’ Letter. The site slightly favors Clinton to win North Carolina, while giving an edge to Trump in Florida. TOP LINE Politics is full of bold, outlandish predictions. 64% Ethereum. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites. org - Top 45 predictit. Bet sizes are limited. Which seems harsh, considering they let other scams like crypto, National Collector's Mint coins, and Tesla keep operatingPrediction markets have gained currency over the last 15 years as a tool to enable crowdsourced insights into the future. 44 billion between 2022 and 2027, according to Technavio's latest market research report. . Even while it lasts, PredictIt is not perfect; an $850-per-contract betting limit imposed by regulation means that long-shots are systematically overvalued on PredictIt. Explore the markets for the 2020 US presidential election, the impeachment of Donald Trump, the 2022 Brazil presidential election and more. e. PredictIt’s Arizona forecast was similar. DraftKings operates a mobile sportsbook in Ireland and has similar odds (-210 for Biden, +160 for Trump). 6%: $882,927. Before Iowa, Betfair, and competitor PredictIt gave Pete Buttigieg only an 8 percent chance of winning the most state delegate equivalents (which he did, pending a recanvass). PredictIt Alternatives TradeFair. Election betting platform PredictIt must shut down for U. com Analytics and market share drilldown here. After betting big on the past two presidential elections — he lost his. PredictIt has long been cited as one of the more accurate predictors of. PredictIt is a platform where you can trade shares on the outcome of political events. You can buy and sell shares of real-world events and earn money if your predictions are correct. PredictItLibrary/framework for making predictions. The global gambling market size is set to grow by USD 260. I think you would be better off building something on top of Augur. PredictIt Alternatives TradeFair. The firm has operated in the U. USBets: “PredictIt users are not taking the forced cessation of their political prediction market lying down, as some of the site’s traders and academic users and its market technology provider Aristotle International filed a federal lawsuit Friday against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That’s an essential reprieve with the original Feb 15 shutdown deadline now less than three weeks away. Automatically choose best models (ARIMA,. It captured GOP strength in key states that almost all mainstream pollsters. It operates on a much smaller scale, however. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minuteIn bet-capped places like predictit, this can make equilibrium that are different from optimal, because there are non-monetary incentives at work. The Vegas bookmakers do not set lines to equalize betting on both side of a wager & in many cases it isn’t possible to do so, just look at the Mattress Mack World. TradeFair is an online trading platform that provides a secure, fast, and easy way to trade stocks, ETFs,. 4, 2022, threatens to harm not only the value of modest investments of more than 80,000 PredictIt traders, but the quality of the anonymized data used by more than. 01 to $0. Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election. 35 shortly after his launch to $0. 31. But PredictIt also allows for those with inside knowledge of future. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Chart by author The Unwisdom Of Crowds. The CFTC ordered the political gambling platform to cease operations by next Feb. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitorsNot only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. BetMoose. Capping. Have 3 partnerships in the year following launch of the company. Submit. PredictItHeadquarters Location. Advertisement Harry Crane is a professor of statistics at Rutgers. Proponents of political betting – including economists like Jason Furman — argue it’s a better gauge of where voters stand than polling and is a hedging tool for. 4. By 2016, popular markets such as the Michigan primaries alone generated more than 2 million trades, in part because prominent pundits like James Carville announced on TV that they were betting on PredictIt. Participants buy shares in an outcome, like who will win a Senate race, for between 1 and 99 cents. AD Users are able to bet on events, such as 2024 nominations for president and whether marijuana becomes federally rescheduled this year, using bank deposits or a credit card, but PredictIt also accepts cryptocurrency. m. Trump is back on top in PredictIt's Republican nomination. PredictIt is a betting exchange, like a stock market. PredictIt and Aristotle, which is the parent company for PredictIt, have said they must start work soon on a system that would allow them to settle contracts for a value between $1 and zero cents. 202-543-8345According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. org Competitors. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minutePredictItFor its part, PredictIt “maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the . 2023 of the popular event prediction market, PredictIt. Discover the full list of predictit. The models for PredictIt and PolyMarket differ significantly from overseas betting on politics. Forecasting is a public good, providing information to the public. PredictItBy Jacob Stern. 2,678Posts. There are two problems here. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Windy is a prediction platform that allows users to make predictions on a. CryptoFind out everything you need to know about PredictIt before you play. You will have $160 to bet on events. Anecdotically, it often has free energy, that is, places where one can earn money by having better probabilities, and where this is not too hard. Predictit is. F. Betting Prediction Markets Practical. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Like all prediction markets, traditional or otherwise, the PredictIt shows Biden as the favorite to win. C. Reddit is not the first platform to attempt a gamification of crowdsourcing, though others like PredictIt have. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. The C. Shares can be. PredictIt had Biden leading overall at 68 cents to Trump. No. PredictIt Insight is a platform that offers data-driven insights on politics and prediction markets. Analyze any website or app. For this reason, wagering on the site has certain restrictions, such as an $850 maximum bet limit per market. There are other sites that operate like PredictIt. org Competitors. The betting odds website "PredictIt" is a joke (Original post) Talking Tom: Mar 2019: OP: Betting markets have proven accuracy. electoral-vote. As I write, his FiveThirtyEight. It has been described as one of two legal ways to bet on elections in the United States. [1] On the ethics of insider trading. 1: People who bet. randn(100, 2), predicted_column=1, predicts=3) There are only two positional arguments data and predicted_column (because, there is more than a. It began operating back in 2014 and, despite its somewhat niche subject matter, soon became quite popular. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. ”’ 1 million. I artificially draw the line between early web and cloud simply because the cloud enabled so many other web apps to become more. The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have had plenty of glitches through. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Snyk Vulnerability Scanner. electoral-vote. Traditional prediction markets like PredictIt and Kalshi use US dollars for the trading of outcomes and distribution of profits. November. In light of this decision, we are halting the. Looking for brands like Predictit? We've researched the 8 top alternatives to Predictit and summarized the best options here in this Predictit competitors grid. 3: Polls. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any one contract a person can hold. In addition, you can join various forums to have discussions with like-minded folks. It’s a way to monetize things like 2022 midterm predictions. S. These are just two examples of the larger narrative, which is that betting markets have continued to. 65 at PredictIt. You can explore the latest trends, analysis, and commentary on various topics, such as Trump's influence, the 2020 election, and more. 00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. That legal matter involves a No Action letter that the CFTC issued then withdrew in. . In 2016, they, like most everyone else, thought Hillary Clinton would become president. In addition to the claims about the university’s and Aristotle’s relationship, the CFTC also claims that 17 markets offered on PredictIt violated the no-action letter’s terms. com. The. A week before Election Day, she was a 75% favorite. Federal regulators want to kill Predictit, the website that lets you bet on political outcomes. Ensure all the packages you're using are healthy and well-maintained. datatable). The price of Yes, as of this writing, is 10 cents. Reveal predictit. org, down from a 2020 high of 57 percent in late. org top alternatives and find potential or emerging competitors. Today's most actual and recent Forex Forecasts. This does not increase if you do arbitrage. PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. As of January 3, 11. Introduction. Subjectively, I’ve found that predictit comes to a similar conclusion to conventional wisdom but it does it faster and more decisively. Learn more. PredictIt traders, academic users and market technology provider Aristotle. New research shows that the best way to improve. g. Additionally, the site charges a 5% fee to withdraw money. New Predictit jobs added daily. We need more platforms like PredictIt to operate markets and promote discussion on events of public interest, not fewer. The PredictIt exchange is similar to a stock exchange, where traders can buy or sell up until the event in question – such as the 2024 presidential election – concludes. 15. Frontpage. I'm thinking of making a bet on PredictIt. Gov. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. Your global no limit betting exchange. Global Traffic Rank. save. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 00:00. It sounds like fun, but is it all sunshine and roses? We have the answers in our. PredictIt remains highly regulated and constrained by the terms of its agreement with the CFTC: Users can’t trade more than $850 on an individual bet, and there can be no more than 5,000 traders. PredictIt (prediction market, $850 limit per contract, commission 10% of net winnings per market + 5% of total withdrawal amount) Crypto (unregulated, act accordingly): FTX (betting exchange, 0. 3 million shares traded on Wednesday morning, according to PredictIt. com, Dr. Per PredictIt’s no-action letter, PredictIt users cannot make more than $850 in any position. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. ". Since anyone can use PredictIt, there’s no reason to think one user is better than another. PredictIt and Windy are two websites that allow users to predict the outcome of various events. On PredictIt, the most popular prediction market platform, over 90 million shares (valued from $0. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. PredictIt is structurally inefficient. His campaign released internal polling that put him in the lead, with his support doubling once voters were told that Trump supports him. According to Nate Silver’s site, this election is still close to a tossup, whereas the wagering on PredictIt suggests it’s all but decided. PredictIt works by having users buy shares in a given candidate’s likelihood of reaching a certain outcome while running for office, somewhat similar to the stock market. BetMoose is a peer-to-peer betting website that allows users to bet on anything and accept or create bets with. Join PredictIt today. , a U. Donald Trump 34¢. Analyze any website or app. The size of bets is capped too, at $850 per. Twitter. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. PredictIt -. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitors Not only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. 2: The media pundits. A federal court is allowing PredictIt to keep its political futures markets online while it pursues litigation against a federal agency trying to shut the site down. Find Predictit's competitors, compare Predictit's features and pricing vs. PredictIt is a platform where you can trade shares on the outcome of political events and make predictions about the future. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Founder & CEO John Aristotle Phillips. The turned to PredictIt because it allowed them to place wagers that were a touch more niche than standard bookmakers offered, but now the site is shutting down and will be missed by those s. It’s a web site the place you possibly can place bets and win cash on political outcomes. PredictIt has an $850 limit on any one market, for any one candidate or other potential outcome. Low $850 cap on maximum position in a contract. January 1, 2021. In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. To engage with some new technologies, you should try a project like sspaeti's 20 minute data engineering project. 2023Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. org alternatives Like 0 electionbettingodds. It reads:PredictIt, a nonprofit exchange that limits speculation to $850 per event, is the most accessible site for Americans. Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets. The PredictIt website offers armchair political pundits a way to make some pocket change by placing small wagers on election outcomes and the actions of politicians. By Danny Funt. Even if the CFTC follows through on its initial decision to shut the site down, it’s hard not to feel that PredictIt has, in some more. PredictIt. After the market resolves, redeem your winning shares for $1 each. 07% take fee) FAIRLAY (betting exchange, variable complex commission structure, 0. # 108,710 6,054 Country Rank. Now if we buy No shares on every candidate, we get into a situation (at least currently) where we profit no matter who wins. This prevents a handful of wealthy individuals from putting down thousands of. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. PredictIt’s non-profit status has allowed it to operate legally by obtaining a no-action letter from the CFTC, the U. com is Direct traffic, driving 83. TradeFair is an online trading platform that provides a secure, fast, and easy way to trade stocks, ETFs,. Few events listed other than politics. PredictItThis isn’t the first time the CFTC has come down on markets like PredictIt. High fees along with restrictions blocking automatic. provider of data processing and verification services. They will give you a match of 100% of your initial deposit up to 80 when you use BESTODDS coupon code. 5. 4% Traffic Share. Everything has been going well since. Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules. Last updated on 2023/04/11PredictIt is a platform where you can bet on political outcomes, such as which party will win the U. PredictIt is an online Other site. Spend 25% of revenues on advertising to make consumers more aware of our service. A world-leading political predictions market led by a New Zealand university is set to close its doors after American regulators concluded it was breaching its terms of operation. The plaintiffs in the PredictIt case have obtained an injunction to keep the site up and running temporarily. PredictIt 65. at the University of Iowa. Suppose you’re a manufacturer operating in today’s marketplace. Welcome to PredictZ! PredictZ provides free football tips and predictions, free analysis, football form and statistics, the latest results and league tables and much more. . GOP 2024 presidential nominee. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. PredictItPredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. The site is an excellent alternative or complement to online political betting markets. The site has become a mainstay in virtually all election discussions, alongside political projections from sites like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. Number of elections simulated each hour. My position is: I've been meaning to. S. S. Free mathematical football predictions and scores for today matches. Drill down into the main traffic drivers in each channel below. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. It seems like PredictIt's 10% effectively moves the point at which it isn't worth it to correct the inefficiency further out from equilibrium than in the case of free trades. Link Copied! The US government is trying to shut down PredictIt, a website that allows gambling on US elections. org) submitted 1 year ago by gwern to r/slatestarcodex. PredictItCloud Era Prediction Markets: policy and public interest prediction markets like PredictIt gained traction in the early 2010’s, presumably in the advent of the cloud, along with sci-fi markets like SciCast. Crypto Briefing spoke with Will Jennings, head of public engagement for PredictIt, to learn more. Commodity Futures Trading. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. After betting big on the past two presidential. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. PredictIt is also a valuable research tool for academics and journalists who want to understand how markets forecast events. “Florida legislator asks if a site like @PredictIt would be illegal in the state under Compact. [1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington [2] with support from Aristotle, Inc. com election betting odds by maxim lott and john stossel live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! who will win? biden, trump, harris, desantis?. Yeah, you guys are definitely on PredictIt. # 1. ”. # 1. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. Like stocks, investors want to buy low and then unload when the value is much higher. ” PredictIt lets everyone see what everyday Americans, rather than just “experts,” think about future political events, without filtering those opinions through potentially biased pollsters. The traders on prediction markets like PredictIt buy the shares with real money, essentially.